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HIGH HOPES
01/06/2008
The best thing about entering the New Year is the prospect of waving bye-bye to George W. Bush, one of the worst presidents this nation has ever been foolish enough to elect.
If last Thursday's Iowa caucuses are a taste of things to come, this year's election to replace Bush will be quite interesting.
I had hoped Obama could pull it off in Iowa, but the polls seemed uncertain and I was prepared for him to lose to Hillary, or even Edwards. So I was pleasantly surprised to see him win by a good margin.
Four years ago, after Kerry lost to Bush, a friend told me she was waiting for '08 when she could support Barack Obama. Though I was impressed with Obama's convention speech, I was certain he would not be taken seriously as a presidential candidate because of his lack of experience either in Washington or as a governor in his own state. Four years in the Senate didn't seem like it would be enough for the pundits and power brokers. And I was convinced Hillary Clinton wanted to run and would be enthusiastically supported by the party leaders.
I was right about Hillary wanting to run, but apparently wrong about the power of the party hacks. In this election, the people appear determined to have their say. My cynicism didn't prepare me for that. Of course, Iowa is a caucus state where people actually have to get together and raise their hands to vote. There are no machines that can be hacked, no chance to steal an election. But it's possible that in New Hampshire the people will speak as well. Conventional wisdom and polls say that Obama and Hillary are neck and neck in New Hampshire. We shall see in two days when the people may surprise us.
Conventional wisdom also says that Mike Huckabee, who brought out a huge evangelical crowd in Iowa, will not repeat in New Hampshire, where John McCain is likely to win. While that may be true, it by no means guarantees that Huckabee's momentum will be stopped. He is leading in South Carolina, the next primary, and how the twenty plus states in play on February 5th will vote is impossible to predict. Huckabee may be enthusiastically supported mainly by evangelicals, and opposed by many economic conservatives, but this is a strange election season and he has a message of optimism and reassurance that many are looking for.
Of course, that is Obama's message as well, one of optimism and hope for the future. In fact, from the moment he entered the race, Obama's message has been one of hope. Even the book he wrote before he declared as a candidate had "hope" in the title. Many pundits dismissed his message at first, thinking it mere fluff in an election where war, terrorism, illegal immigration, and the economy would be the main issues. But they were wrong. They did not accurately measure the mood of the electorate. Issues matter, yes, but in this election the mood of the electorate matters more. And the electorate has been in a foul mood for years, fearful, then angry, then depressed.
Democrats have been in a angry mood since the election of 2000 which they believe was stolen from them, but Independents have increasingly become angry and disillusioned. The bogus case for the Iraq War, and its disastrous execution have led many to turn against this administration. Daily revelations about secrecy in the White House, abuse of executive power, refusal to cooperate with Congress, deleted emails and destroyed videotapes, arrogance, torture, eavesdropping, and scandals have made the Republican Party unpopular with Independents, and even with some Republicans. And as the news grew increasingly negative, many despaired that we would ever regain the country we once knew.
Then along comes someone young and fresh, articulate and inspirational, and the electorate can feel good again. And Obama offers so many ways for voters to feel good. He is a brilliant speaker, and a real uniter. As the first serous African American presidential candidate, he offers the possibility of finally overcoming the racial divide that lingers in America. He dismisses the divide between "red states" and "blue states" and calls everyone to think only of "The United States." He speaks to all Americans, not just Democrats, and he has energized young people. He has the right balance of confidence and humility, of conservative caution and liberal willingness to change. He empowers disillusioned Americans by taking Howard Dean's "you have the power" one step further. Over and over again he credits the voters with his Iowa victory, and charges them with the chance to change America by voting wisely in the upcoming elections. And most of all, he gives Americans hope.
When a candidate uses hope as a main campaign theme, and when the voters judge him to be sincere in his own hopefulness, he wins. John F. Kennedy knew that, as did Bill Clinton, two other young, attractive insurgent candidates.
I still remember being on the playground at my Catholic grammar school and hearing a group of my classmates sing the JFK theme song, to the tune of "High Hopes."
"Everyone is voting for Jack
'Cause he's got what all the rest lack
Everyone wants to back –Jack
Jack is on the right track.
'Cause he's got high hopes
He's got high hopes
Nineteen Sixty's the year for his high hopes.
Come on and vote for Kennedy
Vote for Kennedy
And We'll come out on top!
Oops, there goes the opposition - ker -
Oops, there goes the opposition - ker -
Oops, there goes the opposition - KERPLOP!
K--E--DOUBLE N--E--D--Y
Jack's the nations' favorite guy
Everyone wants to back --Jack
Jack is on the right track.
'Cause he's got high hopes
He's got high hopes
Nineteen Sixty's the year for his high hopes.
Come on and vote for Kennedy
Vote for Kennedy
Keep America strong.
Kennedy, he just keeps rollin' - a -
Kennedy, he just keeps rollin' - a -
Kennedy, he just keeps rollin' along."
And who can forget Clinton in 1992, calling himself the "Man from Hope?"
If Obama wins in New Hampshire with his message of hope, I think he will go all the way to the Democratic nomination and possibly to the presidency. Obama fever has caught on these past few weeks and there may be no way to stop it.
All content © 2005 outragedcitizen.com
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